{ "schemaVersion": "1.0", "updated": "2026-10-13", "title": "Richard J. Reyes / WCT Current Claims and Evidence Ledger", "scope": "Program-level status summary. Statistical results apply only to their stated datasets, analysis choices, nulls, and background models.", "interpretationRules": [ "A symbolic or formal proof is not by itself empirical validation.", "An author-run holdout or replication is not independent replication.", "A p-value applies to the specified test and null/background model; it does not validate the full WCT framework.", "Negative and route-closed results are retained alongside positive results.", "Zenodo record-number ordering is not used as evidence of scholarly priority." ], "claims": [ { "id": "EMP-GWTC-001", "claim": "A training-selected log-periodic chirp-mass mode predicts the frozen GWTC-5 holdout better than the frozen smooth baseline under the declared test.", "status": "FROZEN_HOLDOUT_SUPPORTED_UNDER_TESTED_NULL", "evidenceLevel": "frozen holdout", "result": { "trainingN": 173, "holdoutN": 104, "kFrozen": 9.602325620315224, "deltaDeviance": 10.035425115602617, "nullSimulations": 10000, "p": 0.0012998700129987 }, "supportingResult": "A separately formulated KDE analysis selected k=9.7941176 and returned p=0.00089991 on the same holdout; because the holdout had already been inspected by the primary analysis, this is supporting analysis rather than an independent holdout.", "limitation": "V1 is author-run, and V3/V4 reuse an already-inspected holdout: V4 is a structured-null robustness challenge, not independent future-catalog replication. Its phenomenological population and approximate selection models do not replace posterior-aware LVK hierarchical inference with injection-calibrated selection; WCT physical attribution is unestablished.", "sources": [ "https://github.com/rickyjreyes/GWTC/blob/main/RESULTS.md", "https://github.com/rickyjreyes/GWTC/blob/main/tables/gwtc_frozen_holdout_result.csv", "https://github.com/rickyjreyes/GWTC/blob/main/GWTC_V4_STRUCTURED_NULL_RESULT.md", "https://github.com/rickyjreyes/GWTC/blob/main/V4_REPRODUCE.md", "https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22256802" ], "robustnessV4": { "classification": "PASS_ALL_STRUCTURED_NULLS", "relationshipToV1": "V4 tests a V2/V3-informed fixed mode on the already-inspected 104-event GWTC-5 holdout; robustness/source-discrimination only, not a new independent holdout.", "frozenSignal": { "coordinate": "log(M_chirp)", "k": 9.7, "amplitude": 0.38534801946867075, "phaseRadians": 1.0982350914698238, "holdoutN": 104, "delta2LogL": 9.950185579607101 }, "nullFamily": "Training-fitted continuous broken power law plus truncated Gaussian peak and monotone selection weighting (Mchirp/Mchirp_max)^gamma, without a periodic term.", "nullScenarios": [ { "gamma": 0, "exceedances": 55, "simulations": 10000, "p": 0.005599440055994401 }, { "gamma": 1.5, "exceedances": 1, "simulations": 10000, "p": 0.00019998000199980003 }, { "gamma": 2.5, "exceedances": 2, "simulations": 10000, "p": 0.00029997000299970003 } ], "worstCaseP": 0.005599440055994401, "remainingObligation": "Full posterior-aware LVK hierarchical population inference with injection-calibrated selection; genuinely unseen future-catalog evaluation against a prior frozen prediction." } }, { "id": "EMP-CMS-001", "claim": "A frozen CMS dimuon waveform remains strong under the declared prospective G2 analysis.", "status": "CONDITIONAL_BACKGROUND_SENSITIVE", "evidenceLevel": "prospective fixed-waveform holdout", "result": { "amplitude": 0.9708618, "deltaChi2": 126.2832 }, "limitation": "The apparent significance is strongly background-model dependent; alternative smooth backgrounds reduce it substantially, and detector/reconstruction versus physical origin remains unresolved.", "sources": [ "https://github.com/rickyjreyes/wct-cms", "https://github.com/rickyjreyes/wct-cms/blob/main/docs/CMS_INDEPENDENT_ADVERSARIAL_AUDIT.md", "https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22257067" ], "adversarialAudit": { "observedHistoricalPairScore": 108.43746, "reproducedLockedG2Score": 126.275, "alternativeSmoothNullExceedancesPer1000": { "spline_s1": 442, "logPolynomialDegree12": 359, "penalizedSpline16Knots": 405 }, "interpretation": "Declared-pipeline recurrence is reproducible; significance across reasonable smooth-background models is not established." } }, { "id": "EMP-ATLAS-001", "claim": "The planned CMS-frequency transfer to ATLAS produced a positive independent-detector replication.", "status": "ROUTE_CLOSED_BEFORE_TARGET", "evidenceLevel": "negative development/background adequacy result", "result": { "classification": "V6_FAILED_HIERARCHICAL_ROUTE_CLOSED", "qualifyingK": [], "finalTargetEvaluated": false }, "limitation": "The hierarchical ATLAS background route failed its frozen stability/residual-control gates before target evaluation. The untouched final CMS-frequency holdout was not run, so there is no positive or negative target-frequency replication result.", "sources": [ "https://github.com/rickyjreyes/wct-atlas/issues/6", "https://github.com/rickyjreyes/wct-atlas/issues/10" ] }, { "id": "EMP-NIST-001", "claim": "The Fe II log-cosine scan has a bin-stable best frequency across 120, 160, and 200 bins under the repository's declared null procedure.", "status": "OPEN_DATA_NUMERICAL_SUPPORT", "evidenceLevel": "author-run public-data analysis", "result": { "uniqueLines": 9447, "kBest": 31.3265306122449, "bins": [ 120, 160, 200 ], "nullExceedances": [ "0/5000", "0/5000", "0/5000" ], "empiricalResolutionFloor": 0.0001999600079984003 }, "limitation": "This is an author-run open-data result. Independent replication and the physical interpretation of the spectral structure remain separate questions.", "sources": [ "https://github.com/rickyjreyes/NIST/blob/main/RESULTS.md", "https://github.com/rickyjreyes/NIST/blob/main/tables/nist_verdict.csv" ] }, { "id": "WCT-CORE-001", "claim": "Mass, force, spectra, and effective spacetime geometry emerge from confined oscillatory fields in the WCT framework.", "status": "THEORY_OPEN_EMPIRICAL_CLAIM", "evidenceLevel": "foundational proposal with mathematical, symbolic, numerical, and traceability assets", "result": "The framework is publicly specified and has claim/equation-level audit infrastructure.", "limitation": "The full emergence claim has not been independently established by the empirical results above. Claim-specific mathematical results and empirical tests must be evaluated separately.", "sources": [ "https://rickyjreyes.github.io/publications/geometry-of-resonance.html", "https://rickyjreyes.github.io/equations/", "https://rickyjreyes.github.io/reproduce/" ] } ], "provenance": { "programChronologyDate": "2025-04-22", "geometryOfResonanceCanonicalCitationDoi": "10.5281/zenodo.15644222", "legacyOrVersionDoiExample": "10.5281/zenodo.15286791", "note": "The Geometry of Resonance has a multi-record Zenodo version lineage. The canonical citation target used by this site is not presented as proof that its record number is the earliest same-title deposit. Original manuscript/public-disclosure dates and later archive record creation/redeposit dates are distinct metadata." }, "canonicalPage": "https://rickyjreyes.github.io/priority/#ledger", "machineReadableUrl": "https://rickyjreyes.github.io/priority/claims.json" }